Whether you’re waiting with bated breath for Nov. 8 to arrive, or actively trying to pretend it’s not happening, one thing’s undeniable: We’re getting a new president come January — whether we like ’em or not. And if the 24-year track record of one mock student election is any indication, we may already know their name.
Channel One News, a digital content provider geared towards young readers, has conducted a nationwide mock student election every four years since 1992, when Bill Clinton faced off with George H.W. Bush. But get this: The outcome of the mock election — which polls thousands of students in grades 4 through 12 — has predicted the real one every. single. time.
So who are they saying will walk away victorious next month?
The winner is … drum roll please … Hillary Clinton. By a landslide, too.
Hillary Clinton wins in landslide as 300,000 school kids vote in mock election #KidsKnow https://t.co/mqyDwYRgM2
— Richard Hine (@richardhine) October 25, 2016
Channel One polled some 300,000 students from all 50 states to arrive at a winner, with Clinton carrying 47% of the vote and earning 365 electoral votes. Trump trailed behind with 41% and 173 electoral votes, while the remaining 12% went to various other candidates, including Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.
While some states fell in line as you might expect — with traditionally “blue” states like New York and Vermont going to Clinton and “red” states like Tennessee and Louisiana going to Trump — there were some surprises. Most notably: Texas, which usually leans Republican, went to Clinton. The former Secretary of State also laid claim to key battle ground states like Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina.
As for what issues were most pressing on students’ minds? No. 1 was terrorism, with 19% of voters noting it as the most crucial, followed by education and college, 12%. Immigration and gun control both tied at 11%.
While mock student elections have been held throughout the U.S. since 1940, Channel One’s election — known as OneVote — is the largest nationwide election of its kind, which makes its accuracy in predicting presidents so far pretty impressive. According to Nate Silver’s poll tracking site FiveThirtyEight — which has also accurately predicted election outcomes since its inception — Clinton is the candidate most likely to win. FiveThirtyEight has her at an 85% chance of winning versus Trump’s 15%.
You can check out the full breakdown on OneVote16.org, plus plug in a zip code to see how your local schools voted, if they participated.